【VGPreview】FF13-2强势出击，PSV高调登场，3ds有望单周超50W

Toyger

The Japan Preview: 12/18/11 Edition (Vita Launch, FFXIII-2 launch)18th
Dec Jacob Mazel, 3 hours ago, 937 views
Preliminary figures from Japan are in this week. Data for this week indicates that a huge amount of money was spent at Japanese retail, as Vita launched, and Final Fantasy XIII-2 put up large (in absolute terms) numbers. A lot of other software also increased from last week, and several Vita games had respectable launches. That said, there was no Layton on 3DS like launch figure for any Vita game - none of the new Vita titles topped 100,000 units or got anywhere close to that kind of figure week one.

本周的初步数据说明本周是日本市场的一个销售大周。这周PSVITA发售，FF13-2更是卖出了一个巨大的数字，许多软件相对上周卖的更好，Vita的首发游戏销量也挺不错。我是说因为Vita不像3ds上有雷顿这样的作品，所以首周没有软件销量到达10W，甚至没有接近10W销量的。

1) Final Fantasy XIII-2 (PS3) - 670,000* (likely 700,000 - 740,000 with hw bundles, there were 140,000 FFXIII + PS3 hw bundles in 2009 against 1,370,000 standalone FFXIII units, so presumably there are up to 70,000 bundles for FFXIII-2)

2) Monster Hunter Portable 3G (3DS) - 175,000

3) Inazuma Eleven Go Dark / Shine (3DS) - 164,000

4) Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - 163,000

5) Super Mario 3DLand (3DS) - 94,000

6) Kirby's Return to Dreamland (Wii) - 58,000

7) Blazblue: Continuum Shift Extend (PS3) - 49,000

8) Just Dance Wii (Wii) - 46,000

9) Hotshots Golf (Vita) - 44,000

10) Lord of Apocalypse (Vita) - 38,000

12) Pokepark 2 (Wii) - 35,000

12) Uncharted: Golden Abyss (Vita) - 35,000

13) Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Ketteiban (Wii) - 32,000

15) Mario & Sonic at the London Olympics (Wii) - 29,000

15) Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. (PS3) - 29,000


除了上述游戏 天启之王，Wii sportR，海贼巨人战争，任天猫狗，Wii party 是前20位。

本周最大事件就是Vita和FF的发售，回顾2004年psp发售时，日本首周销量为166,000。Vita能够达到前辈的2-4倍（喂~喂）。psp首周软件冠军是65,000，这是因为首发游戏只有6款，比较于Vita的20+款，大部分的Vita游戏都卖到1-2W本周，虽然带来了巨大的总软件销量，不过进榜的就不多了。Vita三强的总销量为9.5W（榜单里加起来不是这个数，可能是将psp的天启之王错标成vita的了），因此游戏总销量能够轻松达到225,000份。由于Vita是送礼佳品，所以一机一游戏的游戏购买率估算就不适用了。

FF13-2 卖了670,000，这还不算5-10%的PS3捆绑版。这在预料范围之内，发售前夕，预定到达365,000。所以这个首周绝对是年度最大的了。不过FF13卖了这个数的两倍，当PS3的基数只有3,000,000时。对比FF13的销量下降率，下周FF13-2的销量大致在8W-12W，然后争取日本本土百万销量去吧。FF13虽然首发150W但也没达到200W总销量。所以FF13-2可能最后死在95W这个坎上。这个成绩作为FF的正统作品就很低了。考虑到很多的FF同捆版销售，PS3的销量能达到10W，然后进入它2010年的节奏，所有的主机销量都会比2010年降低。

虽然骚尼享受了盛大的一周，老任的销量仍然是那么强大（终于进正题了，VG学会欲扬先抑了嘛），那些妖怪级的长青作品又爆发了第二春，猛汉，马车，马路也都保持良好，闪电11人也强势发售。老任的主机周销量增加了1/3（我擦）。如果闪电十一人能在年末狂潮中为3ds打上一针强心剂的话，3ds可能卖出50W份。

如果Vita和3ds的销量一如预期，那么11区的硬件销量，虽然其他主机都有所下降，但总量还是会有提升。

In addition to the games above, Lord of Apocalypse (Vita), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), One Piece: Gigant Battle 2 - Shinseka (DS), Nintendogs + Cats (3DS), and Wii Party (Wii) will likely chart in the final top 20 data as well.

The big stories for the week are Vita and Final Fantasy XIII-2 for PS3. Back in December 2004, PSP sold about 166,000 units week one in Japan. Vita should be two to four times bigger than that for hardware, although top PSP software in 2004 sold over 65,000 units week one - mainly because PSP had only six games at launch, compared to over 20 for Vita. Most Vita games likely sold 10,000 - 20,000 units this week, but given how large this week was for software, that puts most Vita games outside the preliminary data. Vita could easily see 15-20 games amount to say, 225,000 units, with the top three games mentioned above adding another 95,000 units or so. Vita will be a gift for many people, so the attach rate may not quite be one Vita game per Vita sold initially.

Figures for Final Fantasy XIII-2 came to 670,000 for the week, excluding another 5-10% that were likely bundled with PS3s. That was within the range presented last week, as preorders reached 365,000 for Final Fantasy XIII-2 the night before launch. In absolute terms, the launch was one of the biggest of the year. On the other hand, Final Fantasy XIII sold twice as many units when PS3 had over three million fewer users. Given how quickly Final Fantasy XIII dropped from week one to week two when launching in December, it is fairly likely that Final Fantasy XIII-2 will sell only 80,000 - 120,000 units next week and then struggle to reach 1m units in Japan. Final Fantasy XIII never reached 2m after opening to 1.5m - and so Final Fantasy XIII-2 could die off right around 950,000 or so which is pretty low for a mainline Final Fantasy game. Depending on how many Final Fantasy hardware bundles were sold, PS3 could top 100,000 units this week, which would just about get it to its 2010 pace. Anything less than 100,000 though, and PS3 (like Wii, PSP, DS, X360, and PS2) will likely end the year down in Japan from 2010.

Even with Sony enjoying a tremendous week in Japan, software sales for Nintendo platforms were quite strong this week. Leggy essential Wii software shot up rather nicely for the week, and Monster Hunter, Mario Kart, and Marioland held nicely for 3DS as Inazuma Eleven opened well. Nintendo hardware typically increases around a third this week in Japan, so 3DS could be at 500,000+ units this week if Inazuma Eleven provided a lift in addition to seasonality.

Assuming 3DS / Vita did the expected hardware numbers this week, Japan is now trending ahead of the 2010 pace for hardware and will end the year slightly up on a unit basis even with Wii, DS, PSP, PS2, X360 and possibly PS3 declining from 2010.

Contact VGChartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com