VG神棍日本销量预测：日本整体低迷，幻水称王，少女三甲，启示录长卖

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Software sales in Japan remained slow this week. Not a single game topped 50,000 units. Console software in particular was exceptionally low. It looks like once again no games for Wii or PS3 substantially topped 10,000 units for the week - a rare feat in prior years that has already happened in 2012 once, and should reoccur depressingly often throughout 2012.

本周日本的软件销量仍然十分低迷，没有任何一个游戏售出超过5万份。主机市场的软件销量更是低的可怕，Wii或PS3没有游戏超过1万份的一周——这在往年罕见堪称是不可能的的现象，在2012年已经发生了，而且这绝对不仅仅是最后一次，这种现象恐怕将会贯穿整个2012。


1）幻想水浒传：百年交织（PSP） - 40,000

3）生化危机：启示录（3DS） - 32,000

3）重力眩晕（VITA） - 32,000

4）超级马里奥大陆3D（3DS） - 23000

5）马里奥赛车7（3DS） - 19,000

6）怪物猎人3G（3DS） - 15000

7）装甲核心5（PS3） - 10,000

9）写真女友（PSP） - 9,000

9）仙境传说：奥德赛（VITA） - 9,000

12）怪物猎人携带版3（PSP）-8000

12）舞力全开wii（Wii） - 8000

12）GT5特别版（PS3） - 8000

15）勇者斗恶龙之元气史莱姆3：大海盗与尾巴团（3DS） - 7000

15）刀魂五（PS3） - 7000

15）龙腾世纪II（PS3） - 7000


In addition to the games above, Wii Party (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Inazuma Eleven Go Shine / Dark (3DS), Tales of Innocence R (Vita), and Rhythm Thief (3DS) should all chart in the final top 20 data for the week.

除了上述的游戏，Wii party（Wii），Wii Sports Resort（Wii），闪电十一人 光明/黑暗（3DS），圣洁传说R（VITA），节奏怪盗（3DS）也会出现在本周排名前20位的榜单中。

Software sales remain very low in Japan. Not much is coming in the near term either. The occassional top seller will break 100,000 units sold week one over the next few weeks and months, but there just isn't anything major to juice the market in a major way for what looks like weeks or months. At some point, Dragon Quest X preorders should begin but Square-Enix may be choosing to launch that game in late 2012 to coincide with both the Wii holiday bump and the Wii U launch. An early release of Dragon Quest X would certainly push hardware and cover up for a lot of the weak early 2012 software data.

在日本，软件销售仍然很低迷。而且在短期内并没有好转的趋势。在未来的几周或几个月内可能有游戏偶尔首周将突破10万份，但这并不能成为以后几周甚至几个月的主要力量。其实勇者斗恶龙X的预定也快开始了，不过SE公司可能选择在2012年年底推出这款游戏，以配合Wii的假期效应和WiiU的推出。勇者斗恶龙X的早期一定可以推动硬件销量增长，并且能掩盖一下2012年初孱弱的软件数据。

One of the problems with software sales in 2012 is that most of the platforms can no longer support games that rack up huge software sales - either long-selling games or games that perform very initially and then drop very quickly. The audience that buys long selling games is still split between DS, 3DS and to some extent Wii, while the audience that supports super openings is split between PSP, PS3, and to some extent Vita - although Vita has yet to see any successful software really.

软件销售的问题之一是在2012年大多数平台无法在继续让游戏拥有一个巨大的销量了——无论是长卖的游戏还是初动强力然后很快下降的游戏。购买长期畅销游戏的玩家仍然是DS和3DS，还有某些WII的游戏，而PSP，PS3游戏机则大部分拥有一些初动较强的游戏，vita从某种程度上也是——虽然vita还没有真正看到任何成功的软件。

The other problem is that older hardware is largely seeing only safe software releases, sequels essentially, which don't drive hardware making it more difficult to sell games to new users. The new users are important, as the older users tend to buy less and less software with time as they grow bored with the platform. 3DS has some resistance to the current issues of the Japanese market, as it is a new(ish) platform with a respectable base, and both the long-sellers and 'huge opening' games are starting to work on the platform. The issue is the 3DS is still riding on a fairly thin number of mega-hits and so the breadth of what works on the platform isn't ideal yet for most publishers. As the other software markets continue to collapse though and 3DS continues to grow, more and more content should move to 3DS as it will be the safest and least flawed platform on the market in Japan.

另一个问题是，在上一代游戏机上出游戏成为最安全的行为，因为基本上续集是无法推动销量增长，并且想让新用户购买这些游戏续集会变得更加困难。新用户是很重要的，因为当老玩家觉得这个平台很无聊的时候，他购买的游戏会越来越少。3DS在日本市场目前遇到的阻力不算太大，因为它是一个新的（ISH）值得信赖的硬件平台，大量的长卖型游戏和初动型游戏都开始登陆这个平台。3DS的问题就是现在依然在依靠一些少量的具有轰动效应的游戏，这样的平台上工作出游戏对于很多游戏厂商来说还是不理想的。由于其他平台软件市场持续崩溃，而且3DS硬件销量的持续增长，越来越多的游戏会移动到3DS平台上，因为这将是在日本市场上最安全的，缺陷最少的平台。